COVID-19 TRENDS AND INSIGHTS REPORT 04 November 2022

Executive summary

Overall, key measures of infection (levels of viral RNA in wastewater and reported case rates) used to monitor the COVID-19 epidemic have been substantially increasing since early October. Following a similar trend to case rates, hospital admission and occupancy rates have also started to increase. Meanwhile, mortality counts have continued to decrease; however, both measures (hospital admission and mortality rates) lag behind changes in infection rates.

BA.5 was the dominant subvariant accounting for an estimated 78% of cases, with the proportion of BA.5 declining slowly over the previous weeks, as detections of BA.2.75 and BQ.1.1 are trending upward, both in WGS and wastewater. Both XBB and BA.2.75 variants are over-represented in reinfections.

It is highly likely that over the next few weeks cases, hospitalisations and mortality will continue to increase to a new peak of the third wave. However, the size, timing, and duration of the peak and new baseline trends of cases, hospitalisations and mortality is currently uncertain.

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